Why did Vladimir Putin order a pullout from Syria in late 2017?

  • Vladimir Putin ordered pullout of Russian troops from Syria. Why such a decision?
    Russia had entered Syria to ensure that Bashar-Al-Assad remain in power and the West do not put a puppet in power? It would have been logical to let the troops stay in Syria till Assad ensures stability in the volatile country

    Some Russian troops **will** stay on two permanent bases in Syria. Also, do not take Putin's word for granted, the pullout may take a very long time, or not happen at all if Assad still needs active military support. https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/26186/putins-2016-announcement-withdrawal-of-russian-troops-from-syria

    Also, it's not the first declared "pullout", if I recall correctly.

    @mustaccio The first pullout was to increase the odd of success of a negotiation were the USA were asked to provide a list of moderate rebels. The russians claimed they failed to do so. So they send back their troops in order to get a military victory.

    Has anyone else noted the pun of Putin doing a Pullout?

    @xrorox : "send back" in this comment of yours contradicts "I don't think they did withdrawn troops." in your own comment here: https://politics.stackexchange.com/a/26216/15897 , written 15 hours ago...

    @Evargalo True, I knew why they planned to withdrawn troops, why they cancelled, but not if they actually follow through. As the answer there seemed well informed, I took his words at face value. Actually, the fact that did act on it or not in march 2016, is not really important. Talks failed, so military victories were a prerequisite to end the war.

  • Matt

    Matt Correct answer

    4 years ago

    Surely, that has to do with the previous announcement of such withdrawal made as early as 2016. See, for example, this question. Also, such possibilty was actively discussed in Russian media, and by Russian officials in a couple of previous months (for example, here, here and here).

    But, just as in 2016, Russia is definitely not going to withdraw all the troops from Syria. At the very least, the military bases in Tartus and Hmeymim are leased for another 49 years.

    The Kremlin's official site cites Putin's speech on that matter (the translation is mine):

    Here [in Syria] we've established and will make use on the permanent basis of the two basing points: Tartus and Hmeymim. And if the terrorists will ever raise their heads again, we shall strike such a blow they haven't even seen before.

    So this announcement should only result in decreasing in the number of Russian troops in Syria, which seems quite natural after the successful campaign of 2017. On 12/12/17 only the following units are ordered to leave Syria: 23 jets, 2 Ka-52 helicopters, a special forces squad, a mine clearing squad, military hospital and military police (see here).

    As an addendum, Daesh lost almost all his territory if not all. And the Syrian regime should win the war. So the russians troops are no longer needed, and Putin can avoid some war propaganga from geopolitical rivals and claim a military victory right before an election year. After all, you can't wage war withouth killing civilians or enduring losses. The americans have proved it again and again.

    @xrorox Well, in fact Daesh is still there having intensive clashes against an-Nusra (which is quite nice from almost any point of view). But, anyway, the current rumours are that the number of Russian troops and units will be reduced by half. So it's expected to be a very significant reduction, but not a true withdrawal by any means.

    True, but you could not expect a true withdrawal. The russians don't have many bases in the region and they still need to shield Damas. If they leave and the US take down Assad one way or the other, they will have fought for nothing.

    @xrorox Moreover, there are persistent rumours that Russia is going to establish another military bases in nearby countries, so overall Russian presence in the region will even grow.

    Yeah, Irak and Iran are likely candidates, maybe Egypt but not right now. I wonder if they did not already got air bases in Iran.

    @xrorox Iran is particularly against any permanent foreign military presence, so it's highly unlikely Russia will ever have a base in Iran.

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Content dated before 7/24/2021 11:53 AM